| Аннотация | The article presents the author’s developments in the field of agent-based modeling of labor
potential reproduction that help build scenario forecasts of labor potential dynamics and test various
options of management actions, choosing the optimal ones. The model simulates processes of the
formation, distribution and use of labor potential of a municipal district, taking into account activities of
the agents of three levels: individuals (carriers of labor potential, agents-people), legal entities (employers,
agents-firms), municipal authorities. Agents-people and agents-firms are present in the model explicitly
as separate types of agents. The starting number of agents-people is determined at the rate of one person
from each ten. “Firms” are considered in aggregate due to available statistical data: each corresponds
to one type of economic activity. Thirteen agents-firms are presented as a total. Agents-authorities are
present in the model implicitly and form the functioning environment of agents of other types. Their
behavior is set exogenously. The model is implemented in the simulation system AnyLogic Professional
and tested on the data of the Velikoustyugsky Municipal District of the Vologda Oblast. The research
information base consists of the materials, provided by the Territorial Body of the Federal State Statistics
Service of the Vologda Oblast, as well as the database of the questionnaire surveys conducted by the Vologda
Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences in the region. The advantages of the proposed
approach, which make up its scientific novelty, include the fact that the model reproduces a current
state and dynamics of labor potential in unity and relationship of its quantitative and qualitative aspects,
simulates basic processes of each phase of labor potential reproduction, takes into account features of municipal statistics and authorities’ real powers. In addition, to describe people-agents’ labor potential
quality, agent-based modeling uses a concept of qualitative characteristics of the population for the first
time and each agent is endowed with eight basic qualities: physical and mental health, cognitive and
creative potential, sociability, cultural and moral levels, achievement need. The agents of the same sex and
age are not the same in the model. |
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