| Аннотация | The relevance of the study is due to the increasing risks of bankruptcy of chemical industry enterprises in the context of global socio-economic instability. The aim of the work is to design forecast scenarios for the dynamics of the probability of chemical industry enterprises bankruptcy, taking into account the influence of internal and external factors. The paper uses a methodological approach to forecasting the probability of enterprises bankruptcy, which combines discriminant analysis according to the modified Altman method, multiple least squares regression analysis, assessing the impact of internal and external factors on the probability of enterprises bankruptcy, as well as autoregressive modeling with a moving average (ARIMA/ARMA) to build forecast scenarios (inertial, extremely pessimistic and optimistic) for the probability of bankruptcy. The study uses data from the primary reporting of chemical industry enterprises in the Sverdlovsk Region for the period from 1999 to 2023 and statistical data from Rosstat. The study has found that large and small chemical enterprises are more susceptible to bankruptcy risks than midsize ones due to high creditworthiness, insufficient amount of stock and own working capital. We identify main factors influencing the probability of bankruptcy for each group of chemical industry enterprises: for large enterprises, it is the provision of own working capital, profitability of non-current assets, number of economically active population in the Sverdlovsk Region, amount of costs for innovative activities of organizations in the region; for midsize enterprises, it is the provision of total capital and profitability of current assets; for small enterprises, it is the provision of own working capital and inventory turnover. The projected scenario forecasts allow us to establish a low probability of bankruptcy for midsize chemical enterprises, an increased probability for large enterprises and a significant probability for small enterprises. Our approach to scenario modeling and forecasting the probability of bankruptcy, taking into account the influence of various factors, tested on the example of chemical enterprises, can be used to develop strategic plans and measures of state support for industry enterprises aimed at reducing the risks of financial insolvency and increasing their financial stability
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