| Наименование статьи | Major City Development Forecast: Designing the Innovative Future |
|---|
| Страницы | 214 |
|---|
| Аннотация | The article describes the results of application of the authors’ approach to forecasting the development of the city (in the case of one of the largest Russian cities – Ekaterinburg). The main results of the development of multi-variant long-term forecast of Ekaterinburg socio-economic
development are presented: the provisions of the approach used to create such documents are set out,
a brief description of the forecasting methodology is given, the key aspects of city life in the context
of the proposed development scenarios are forecasted, the main risks of long-term development
of the city are described. The study is based on the use of the whole set of forecasting methods
such as mathematical modeling, balance and cohort-component methods, extrapolation methods
and expert evaluation method. The article describes the situation in Ekaterinburg regarding other
cities and evaluates key development prospects of a municipal unit. It is recommended to use the
approach based on the given scenario “junctions” (each of which gives two alternative scenarios);
this helped identify eight options for the city transformation. Three Ekaterinburg development
scenarios are covered in detail, which provided an opportunity for considering economic and
social components of a municipal system in different conditions. They are inertial, basic and
innovative city development (the authors mark the importance of the innovation scenario). The
authors also characterize the possible ways of transforming demographic potential, economic and
human resources. The study also identifies the degree of risks and threats to Ekaterinburg longterm
development, estimates external and internal (technological, infrastructural, demographic
and environmental) risks. The obtained results are an important element of the city development
planning system, since effective management of municipal socio-economic system development
can only be implemented with proper presentation of possible directions of its transformation. |
|---|
| Ключевые слова | forecasting, development scenario, major city, demographic forecast, economic forecast, labor resource forecast |
|---|
| Журнал | Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast |
|---|
| Номер выпуска | 6 |
|---|
| Автор(ы) | Лаврикова Ю. Г., Антипин И. А., Прядеин А. А., Суворова А. В. |
|---|
| Файл |  |
|---|