| Наименование статьи | Methodological Aspects of Predicting the Probability of Bankruptcy on the Example of Pharmaceutical Companies |
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| Страницы | 115 |
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| Аннотация | When it comes to the development of industrial enterprises, there is always the possibility of a
crisis; therefore, for continuous sustainable operation it is necessary to develop preventive tools to predict
the crisis processes in advance. The present paper covers the objective of developing and testing models
for estimating the probability of bankruptcy based on logistic regression for sustainable development of
domestic industrial enterprises. The study was conducted within the pharmaceutical industry, yet the
methods of development and the testing technique can be applied in other industries. The paper presents
the stages of model development (predictor formation, correlation and regression analysis) and its testing
(evaluation of statistics parameters, comparative analysis with existing models). The use of the logistics
model of bankruptcy assessment helps analyze the correlation between the indicators of enterprise’s
economic condition and its degree of bankruptcy. Moreover, such a model can quantify the probability of
bankruptcy at an industrial enterprise. The reliability and validity of the presented results is confirmed by
the generalization of theoretical and methodological studies of experts in this field, the applied results are
based on a large amount of financial information of domestic pharmaceutical enterprises and confirmed
by the use of algorithms of economic and mathematical modeling recognized in the scientific community.
The study used indicators of economic condition based on public reporting of 266 pharmaceutical
companies, where one hundred companies were engaged in model development and the rest – its testing.
The developed model is able to predict the probability of bankruptcy of pharmaceutical enterprises two years ahead. The small amount of calculations and lack of highly technical calculations helps quickly
obtain information about the economic condition and versatile calculation makes it possible to conduct
a comparative analysis of enterprises in the context of one industry. |
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| Ключевые слова | crisis management, modelling, logistic regression, probability of bankruptcy, correlation and regression analysis, elimination method, industrial enterprises, pharmaceutical industry |
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| Журнал | Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast |
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| Номер выпуска | 2 |
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| Автор(ы) | Стельмах В. С. |
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| Файл |  |
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