| Наименование статьи | Agent-Based Supercomputer Demographic Model of Russia: Approbation Analysis |
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| Страницы | 74 |
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| Аннотация | The article presents an agent-based demographic model of Russia designed to run on
supercomputers. The technologies used in the model allow researchers to create an artificial society with
the number of agents up to 109 and effectively parallelize the work of the simulator. The software package
designed to implement the model combines separate subsystems written in programming languages of
different levels. On the one hand, this provides effective load balancing between computing processes and
messaging between agents (implemented in C++), and on the other hand, this simplifies the development
of model blocks that implement the simulation of demographic processes (implemented in C#). The
demographic processes in the model are simulated based on the actions of individual agents, taking into
account their family ties, which they maintain by exchanging messages. Key features of the demographic
agent-based models are the following: a) dynamic change in the size and composition of populations of
agents – removal of part of the agents (their “death”) and the emergence of new ones (“birth”); and b)
separation of actions performed at the simulation step in stages, each of which can cause the revision of
the general settings that are specific to regions or groups of agents, and/or exchange of messages between
agents. In the course of computer experiments, the model has been tested on real data and has shown
good results at testing for the following parameters: a) the quality of recreating the age-sex structure of
the population for the country as a whole and in the regions with the use of the population of agents; b)
the stability of the model and a low margin of error of the results of forecasting the main demographic
indicators in comparison with the variants of Rosstat’s official forecast; c) efficiency of parallelization of
the program code when running on supercomputers. The model is the basic one for an integrated regional
simulation model that is currently being developed; however, the model can be useful as an independent
forecasting tool. |
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| Ключевые слова | agent-based modeling, simulation of demographic processes, supercomputer technologies, application of METIS graph decomposition, demographic forecast for Russia. |
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| Журнал | Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast |
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| Номер выпуска | 6 |
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| Автор(ы) | Макаров В. Л., Бахтизин А. Р., Сушко Е. Д., Сушко Г. Б. |
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| Файл |  |
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