| Аннотация | Birth rate dynamics in Russia’s population remains one of the major objects of attention of demographic science and politics. In 2019, the aggregate birth rate in Moscow exceeded the Russian average, giving rise to assumptions about the likelihood of the emergence of a new trend, despite the fact that studies of reproductive behavior of city dwellers indicate the prevalence of intentions to have fewer children. The article presents estimates of birth rates in metropolitan megacities of Russia, indicating that the values of indicators are still lower than the Russian average and even lower than the same indicators for Russia’s urban population. According to the data of an up-to-date survey of female Moscow residents, we find the prevalence of intentions to have fewer children and postpone childbirth. Significant factors influencing the intentions of female Moscow residents to have children are marital behavior, level of education, standard of living and value orientations. Birth rates in female Moscow residents with higher education in real generations are slightly lower than the Russian average. A slightly less pronounced inclination toward getting married in a civil ceremony also has a significant determinant role. The impact of income level cannot be assessed unambiguously. Indeed, in groups of women with relatively lower welfare, fertility rates are higher, but this is due to the ratio of satisfaction with the standard of living and the importance of children (the need for children). A higher level of income (and satisfaction with it) contributes to the realization of reproductive intentions. Female Moscow residents tend to have fewer children since such an attitude is passed down from previous generations; besides, among them, there is a higher proportion of those focused on individual values, which also determines a lower birth rate in a metropolitan megacity. Taking into account birth rate trends and the peculiarities of reproductive behavior of female Moscow residents can contribute to improving the effectiveness of demographic policy. |
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